Spread Picking Competition: Week 2

Ahh, one week is in the books and we know a bit more about the teams. The Colts looked less impressive than I expected. The Jets looked better than I thought they would be. The Rams, Lions, Broncos, and Bengals were who we thought they were. Alas, I should be a little better prepared to make these picks. First of all, a recap from last week:

I went 9-7. I picked nine of the first eleven games I had listed correctly, before going absolutely cold. The afternoon and Sunday and Monday night games were NOT kind to me. Aside from getting the 49ers-Cardinals game correct, I missed the Giants (won by 6, spread was 6.5), I don't want to talk about the Rams, Aaron Rodgers beat me with a late TD pass, and the Chargers and Pats struggled to beat crappy opponents and neither came close to covering. If you read the first week, you know this is a competition between myself and my girlfriend Sarah, whose blog can be found here. She also went 9-7, although her picks were different from mine, which goes to show you, it doesn't matter how you pick them, you can't be very successful. Anyway, on to this week's picks, lines taken from here (my picks are in bold):

Oakland (+3) at Kansas City

If you didn't see what I had to say about the Chiefs after their dismal performance last week, either scroll down to the next entry or click here. They just aren't very good, and the Raiders actually showed some promise.

Houston at Tennessee (-6.5)

Tennessee won't be happy after losing a nail biter to Pittsburgh, especially when Rob Bironas missed two field goals in regulation. Houston's offense sputtered at home against the Jets, and I think the Titans' defensive unit is stronger, plus the Texans don't play well on the road.

New England at New York Jets (+3.5)

This one is strictly done because I am a Jets fan and Sarah is a Pats fan. Also, the Jets looked good enough to merit me picking them. Their defense was stout and the offense is very solid, which works when the Patriots defense is terrible.

New Update: Apparently the Patriots only serviceable middle linebacker, Jerrod Mayo, is out 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain. No Bruschi, no Vrabel, no Seymour, and no Mayo. Since Eric Mangold is a man at center, he should be able to contain Vince Wolfork well enough for the Jets RBs to get to the second level, where last year's starters (aside from Adalius Thomas) are all gone. I'm liking this pick even more now.

Cincinnati at Green Bay (-9)

The Packers defense looked great, and the Bungles couldn't move the ball on the hapless Broncos. Plus Green Bay gets to play at Lambeau.

Minnesota (-9.5) at Detroit

Let me break it down for you. It's this versus this.

New Orleans (+1.5) at Philadelphia

Donovan McNabb is hurt and most likely not playing. Drew Brees is really, really good. Drew Brees is not Jake Delhomme, meaning that the Eagles defense will not put up a similar effort to the one they had on Sunday (which nearly cost me a fantasy matchup). The Saints play just enough defense to win.

Carolina at Atlanta (-6)

Jake Delhomme has 11 turnovers in his last two non-preseason games. Jake Delhomme plays for the Panthers. The Panthers play in Carolina.

St. Louis at Washington (-9.5)

Until the Rams can score I won't pick them, especially since it burned me last week.

Arizona (+3) at Jacksonville

I know I said Arizona sucks, but this is my random road team covering pick.

Seattle at San Francisco (-1.5)

The 49ers respond to Mike Singletary because the players fear playing with ten players and getting penalized all the way and he wants winners (his opinion on losers couldn't be found). Also, Seattle on the road means it has no home-field advantage. Seriously, that is some sagacious stuff from me right there. The home-field advantage is important to them, that's what I was getting at.

Tampa Bay (+4.5) at Buffalo

Buffalo finds a way to lose games. At least they don't have to play on Monday Night Football again.

Cleveland (+3) at Denver

Both teams are awful. I have a feeling Denver would be an underdog in this game if not for their miracle Week 1 win.

Baltimore (+3) at San Diego

The offense looked great and will run all over San Diego. Plus Tomlinson is already hurt.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Chicago

Both teams are missing a defensive stud (Hair Polamalu for the Steelers and Brian Urlacher for the Bears). The Steelers prevail in this honor du-el since they can make up for the loss of Polamalu and will bait Cutler into throwing a few more INTs.

New York Giants at Dallas (-3)

Dallas has beaten the Giants four of the past six times in Big D, and they do it again behind Tony Romo's right arm.

Indianapolis (-3) at Miami

Yes, Miami gets the home crowd on Monday Night. I just don't think they're a very good team. I went with Indy last week at home and lost, but I think Peyton Manning lights up the Dolphins secondary and leaves Miami in an 0-2 hole and two games behind the division leader after the Pats and Jets tangle.

Hopefully I have a better week this time around.

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 9-7

Spread Picking Competition: Week 1

This will be a year long competition between myself and my girlfriend, Sarah, whose blog can be found here: http://realwomenwatchfootball.blogspot.com/. Is this an idea borrowed from Bill Simmons and his wife's little competition? Yes. Is it different? Yes, it is. How so, you may ask? My girlfriend loves football and watches it religiously, while Bill Simmons' wife doesn't know the difference between a safety that awards two points and the two safeties that line up in the defensive backfield on every play. Starting next week, I shall give you all a running count of a who is in the lead in our competition. Without further ado, here we go (spreads are taken from http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_point_spreads.shtml); my pick is bolded:

Tennessee (+6) at Pittsburgh

This should be a typical Steelers game. Ugly, low-scoring, and defensive minded. It also should have been the AFC Championship game last season, if not for a Chris Johnson injury and Alge Crumpler fumbles against Baltimore. I could see either team pulling this one out, but think Pittsburgh has just enough, winning 17-14, but still allowing Tennessee to cover.

Miami at Atlanta (-4)

These are two playoff teams from last year who I don't see returning to promised land this year. I think Miami didn't get much better, and cannot stay as healthy as they did last year while Atlanta just has too much firepower for them at home.

Kansas City at Baltimore (-13)

I just don't think Kansas City is quite there yet, plus I don't think Cassell with be playing. The combination of a relatively inexperienced quarterback (probably Brodie Croyle) against a vicious Baltimore D, at home, means this one could get ugly.

Philadelphia (-1) at Carolina

While I hate Michael Vick, I also think that Philadelphia is that good, while the NFC South as a whole is mediocre. Just about any Philly win covers this one, so I think they're a safe pick.

Denver at Cincinnati (-4.5)

Is it unreasonable to think that I may never pick Denver to cover this entire season? The team has been in disarray since Josh McDaniels took over, and their shifting from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and not having the personnel to pull it off means things could get uglier this season than they currently are.

Minnesota (-4) at Cleveland

Since so many NFL players use Twitter nowadays, I'd think that if Eric Mangini told his players who would be the starting QB, we'd have found out. That leads me to believe that the team doesn't know, which means that they probably won't fare very well in Week 1, even if the Williamses aren't allowed to play.

New York Jets (+4.5) at Houston

OK, this is a bit of a homer pick on my part. I know Houston plays well at home and the Jets are starting a rookie QB, but Rex Ryan has revamped this defensive unit. Additionally, the Jets are going to run, run, and run some more, and Houston's defensive tackles aren't exactly world beaters.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7.5)

I just can't pick against Peyton Manning at home, especially when Maurice Jones-Drew is nursing a tender ankle right now and Jacksonville's offense revolves around him.

Detroit at New Orleans (-13)

That's a ton of points to give, but Detroit was terrible on defense last year, and didn't do much to address it in the draft, as it used both of its first rounders on offensive players. While New Orleans doesn't have a great defense either, Matthew Stafford, the Lions' newly appointed starter, hasn't blown me away in the pre-season. Couple that with the fact that the Superdome gets loud, and we could have another blowout.

Dallas (-6) at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay is rebuilding, Dallas just got rid of its biggest headache, Terrell Owens. I like the offense to explode in Big D this year, starting with a romping of a 4-12 bound Buccaneers team.

San Francisco (+6.5) at Arizona

This is a matchup that San Francisco should have won on Monday Night Football last year. Mike Singletary, despite being a bit quirky, can motivate his group of players. I don't think Arizona can do what it did last season, and that harsh reality kicks in during Week 1.

Washington at New York Giants (-6.5)

Until the Redskins figure out how to utilize Jason Campbell's strong arm (Santana Moss has become somewhat useless in this offense, but should mesh well with Campbell), I don't trust them to put up big points. Couple that with a stout Giants defense, and the Giants win by 10.

St. Louis (+8.5) at Seattle

Seattle was maybe the unluckiest team in the NFL last year in terms of injuries. While they will probably win this division this year, I like a healthy Steven Jackson (is that an oxymoron?) and an upgraded O-line to help St. Louis keep this one under the spread.

Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay

I just like the Bears this year. I don't know why. I like them to surprise Green Bay on Sunday night in Lambeau.

Buffalo at New England (-10.5)

Let's see...one of these starting offenses managed only three points during the preseason. The other is just one year removed from being the highest scoring offense in NFL history. Oh yeah, the team that can put up the points is at home. This one's easy.

San Diego (-9.5) at Oakland

San Diego is a popular pick to win the Super Bowl this year. It doesn't matter that Oakland is at home. Al Davis is still the owner, and they're still not very good.

So there you have it...Week 1's matchups all picked. I ended up going with 5 underdogs to cover, and a majority of road teams (nine, versus seven home teams) to cover. I also went with two road underdogs to cover, so we shall see how it all turns out.

Note: This spreads were taken earlier in the week and some have changed since then, so the link provided will have some different spreads than what I used here.