Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

This is the first time I have ever done a mock draft, and, I don't claim to be an expert. I am just a guy who loves college and pro football and may know a little bit more than the average fan. If you don't agree with where I have guys going, great, leave a reply saying where you think I screwed up. Also, if I get enough people who want me to make amendments to it leading up to the draft, I'll be more than happy.

When doing this, I tried to take into account three main things. First and foremost was team need, then player availability, and then finally GM drafting trends.

If you want a better mock draft, then please check out www.walterfootball.com, and here is a link to his mock draft. He knows far more than I do and I routinely look forward to his mock updates. Anyway, without further ado, here is Version 1.0 of my 2010 Mock Draft:


1)
St. Louis Rams: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

It is no secret that you need a quarterback to win in the NFL. Marc Bulger isn’t the answer, which means the Rams need to address the position now. The 2011 draft will produce Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett, with a significant dropoff from Locker to Mallett, then from Mallett to everyone else. Thus, while the Rams will most likely be bad again in 2010, a 5-11 campaign might put them out of the running for one of these guys. They have the chance to take Clausen or Bradford now, and, with the recent successes of rookie QBs (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, and Mark Sanchez), the Rams shouldn’t be too concerned with pulling the trigger on Clausen and letting him compete with Marc Bulger for the starting job in Week 1.

2) Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Hmm, not a bad consolation prize for Detroit. While the offensive line could use an upgrade, Suh is pretty unanimous in terms of being the best prospect in this draft amongst experts. The man is a 300-pound ballerina who sheds double-teams like it’s his job. He also lets the quarterback know he has gotten to him, as evidenced by his tossing Colt McCoy like a rag doll in the Big XII Championship game. He should anchor that defense in the middle for a long, long time.

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Has a prospect this good ever received so little hype? With everyone focused on Mr. Suh, Gerald McCoy continues to be a dominant force at defensive tackle. He’s either going to Detroit or Tampa Bay (depending on whether St. Louis goes with Clausen or Suh), and should be a key cog in turning either franchise around.

4) Washington Redskins: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

New regimes mean new quarterbacks. That means Jason Campbell will be out (unjustly, I think, but that’s a whole different matter), and Mike Shanahan will want to bring in his own guy. While the injury to Chris Samuels could end his career and leave a gaping hole at left tackle, which would make Russell Okung enticing, I think they go with the team leader here. Also, Dr. James Andrews (those three words always lead to people listening to what will follow) performed the surgery on Bradford’s shoulder and is employed by the Redskins, so if Bradford is ready to go, they’ll know best.

5) Kansas City Chiefs: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Okung is the premier left tackle in this draft, which works out perfect for Kansas City, which just sunk a boatload of money into Matt Cassel. Being that recent draft choice Branden Albert couldn’t block anyone at the LT position last season (I believe he surrendered 10.5 sacks), Okung would kill two birds with one stone, as it would fill the void at LT and allow Albert to move elsewhere on the line and be more productive.

6) Seattle Seahawks: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

To me, Seattle’s biggest need is a left tackle. They probably wouldn’t mind snagging a QB for the future either, but nobody is even close to being worthy of the #6 pick that hasn’t been taken yet. Since they just missed out on Okung and have another pick later in the first round where they can address the need, this pick, while it addresses a need in the secondary, is sort of like hitting the jackpot. Eric Berry is dynamic from the safety position, as he can drop into a zone, come up and cover a running back or tight end, or be a disruptive force in the run game. Whenever you can grab a guy compared to Ed Reed, you know you’ve done something right.

7) Cleveland Browns: Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Seeing how big of an impact a shutdown corner can have (Darrelle Revis, Nnamdi Asomugha, Champ Bailey) should let teams know that this is an important position to address. Cleveland needs help everywhere too, so it’s not like any draft choice is taken because “he was the best player available.” Look for Haden to come in and start immediately for a dismal Browns’ secondary.

8) Oakland Raiders: Taylor Mays, S, USC

Does he belong here? Hell no. However, due to the fact that Al Davis chooses his draftees based on what type of performance they turn in at the NFL Combine, I think that the only two players he could possibly choose here are Taylor Mays and Carlos Dunlap. He’ll probably do some cursory checks and find these two numbers: 37 (the number of sacks Oakland had this year, tied for 11th in the league) and 8 (the number of interceptions they had, tied for dead last). Then he’ll determine that Carlos Dunlap gets sacks not interceptions, and despite the fact that he can’t cover anyone and has slow reaction time, Taylor Mays plays safety so he gets interceptions, which is where they need more help, and so Taylor Mays will be the pick. That reasoning is sad, but you have to wonder how far it is from the truth.

9) Buffalo Bills: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

This team certainly needs QB help, but, much like Seattle, won’t reach for a guy like Colt McCoy at this juncture. The Mike Williams trade last year left a pretty big hole (literally and figuratively) on the left side of their line, and they need to make sure that whichever quarterback they bring in next season doesn’t have to worry about getting clocked from behind.

10) Denver Broncos (from Chicago)*: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

As each day passes, it seems more and more likely that Brandon Marshall ends up somewhere not named Denver next season. If that happens, then the Broncos have a huge void at the position, one that Eddie Royal (was he alive last year?) and Jabar Gaffney can’t fill. Enter Dez Bryant, who, despite being suspended all year last season, is the premier wide receiver in this draft, has great hands and speed, and will go over the middle or stretch the field. He will be a great target for whoever is quarterbacking the Broncos in 2010.

11) Jacksonville Jaguars*: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

I have seen lots of mocks that have the Jaguars taking Tim Tebow here, but that, to me, is just asinine. I understand why Jacksonville would go that route, because the franchise needs to sell tickets to avoid moving to Los Angeles and Tebow, the local boy and cult hero could put people in the seats, but how long will they stay when the team is getting clobbered? Winning alone didn’t do it for the team, and with how awkward and awful Tebow looked at the Senior Bowl, will his iconic status alone be enough to keep filling the stands for a three-win team? I say not.

That means that Jacksonville should address its true needs, which start with getting pressure on the opposing quarterback. They ranked dead last in the NFL last year in sacks (14 of them). Pierre-Paul, while relatively inexperienced, was a force at South Florida this past season and should show well at the Combine. He is a raw talent and could be a tough guy to block at the next level.

12) Miami Dolphins: Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama

Bill Parcells likes to draft linebackers, the Miami Dolphins need help at linebacker, and Rolando McClain is the best linebacker in the draft. Sometimes it’s as simple as that. Also, I don’t think Parcells will use a first-rounder on a wide receiver (which the Dolphins also need), as the only guy he might consider would be Dez Bryant who I have gone already, plus there are lots of good guys out there in free agency that they can add.

13) San Francisco 49ers: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

The 49ers have two big needs. The first is the secondary, and the second is the right tackle position. Luckily for them, they have to two first round picks with which to address those needs. Ideally Joe Haden would fall for them, and they may trade up to get him (I don’t think they will, but it’s not out of the picture), but, if they don’t I think Kyle Wilson is the pick here. He was apparently very impressive at the Senior Bowl, moving very fluidly and not getting beat. Additionally, he provides a threat in the return game.

14) Seattle Seahawks: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

As I said before, Seattle needs to solve the offensive line problems, and they do that here with their second first-round selection. Bryan Bulaga should be able to come in immediately and start for them, thus allowing Matt Hasselbeck to not worry about his blindside and hopefully keep him healthy for the first time in a while. He still has something left, and this Bulaga selection will make him smile on draft day.

15) New York Giants: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

The Giants love to bolster their defensive line, stockpiling talent and constantly subbing in pass rushers to keep guys fresh and give the defense different looks. Their pass rush wasn’t as effective as it has been in the past last season, which exposed the secondary. Bringing in Dunlap would give them the ability to get to the QB faster and impose their will on defenses late in games again. The major red flag here is Dunlap’s off-the-field issues, and being in New York probably won’t do as much to quell them, but his talent is undeniable and can’t go overlooked.

16) Tennessee Titans*: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

Kyle Vanden Bosch may be the hardest worker in the NFL from the opening kickoff to the final whistle, but he isn’t getting any younger, so a guy to follow in his footsteps and line up on the other side is a must for this team to address. Morgan is an explosive rusher off the edge and will help Tennessee in defending the pass game, an area where they struggled mightily last year.

17) San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)*: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

They filled the secondary need with their first pick, so here the 49ers address the right tackle need by taking the best prospect at that position in the draft. Trent Williams should help bolster the passing game and open up holes for Frank Gore to run through. With these two picks, the flashes of brilliance they showed last year, and Kurt Warner’s retirement, I think the 49ers have a very good shot at winning the NFC West in 2010.

18) Pittsburgh Steelers: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

I know they have Max Starks at LT, but this offensive line still needs upgrading, and passing on a guy like Bruce Campbell here seems foolish to me. It’s very possible that he doesn’t slide down this far, but, if he does, expect Pittsburgh to pounce, as they try to reestablish their power running game next season.

19) Atlanta Falcons*: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State

Abysmal. That’s what Atlanta’s pass defense was last year, and it has to be their number one area of concern this off-season. With Haden and Wilson off the board, Patrick Robinson, who also had a good Senior Bowl of his own, should be the pick to come in and help Atlanta shore up its secondary.

20) Houston Texans*: Earl Thomas, S, Texas

I really considered mocking C.J. Spiller here due to the debacle that is the Texans’ backfield, but, at the end of the day, when you play in a division with Peyton Manning, you need to make sure that he doesn’t beat you consistently. Thus, the Texans address the secondary and take the best remaining safety available, Earl Thomas.

21) Cincinnati Bengals: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

This is a run-first team, but Carson Palmer needs somebody besides Chad Johnson (Revis shut him down, so that’s his name now) to throw the ball to after Chris Henry’s unfortunate death. Jermaine Gresham can do it all, run block, catch passes, and presents matchup nightmares because he’s too fast for linebackers and too big for safeties. If he’s around, Cincinnati should pounce.

22) New England Patriots: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Oh, what I didn’t want to happen. I think Bill Bellichick will finally realize that quality trumps quantity in his backfield, and address the need by taking the most explosive player in the draft (he’s supposed to be the next Chris Johnson, which all Patriots fans would take). He can run, catch, and return, so he would fit very well into the Patriots four-wide sets and pose a dangerous threat to run or catch the ball out of the backfield. I hate this as a Jets fan and hope someone else takes him before the Patriots pick.

23) Green Bay Packers: Charles Brown, OT, USC

I think most of us who follow the NFL know how porous the Packers’ offensive line was for most of the 2009 season, and even though Chad Clifton’s play got better as the year went on, an additional guy to compete for the job is a good idea, and Brown should be able to start at one of the tackle positions in 2010.

24) Philadelphia Eagles: Everson Griffen, DE, USC

Much like the Titans, the Eagles’ best pass rusher, Trent Cole, could use some help on the other side. Darren Howard is getting up there in years, and Everson Griffen could provide a spark to the team’s pass rush.

25) Baltimore Ravens: Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame

Derrick Mason already retired and unretired once, and I don’t sense that he’s Brett Favre, so I think he might be done this off-season. If that’s the case, then the Ravens’ only consistent threat in the passing game that isn’t Ray Rice needs to be replaced. I think the Ravens are hoping Gresham falls to them, and Anthony McCoy from USC is also an option, but, at the end of the day, I think Baltimore takes the big play threat receiver in Golden Tate.

26) Arizona Cardinals: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas

This defense got abused in two straight games in the playoffs, and a dual threat in the passing and running game in Sergio Kindle could help them out. I could also see them taking a nose tackle here (one of the two at the bottom of this first round), but I think the defense thrives on being pressure-oriented, and Kindle plays right into that mentality.

27) Dallas Cowboys: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

After watching Minnesota dominate their offensive line in the playoffs, the Cowboys need to upgrade that unit. Granted the tackles struggled the most, but apparently the Cowboys were in absolute awe over this mountain of a man at the Senior Bowl, even though he didn’t impress me much during the game (got beaten a few times, despite the fact that only four guys could rush), it’s not my pick to make.

28) San Diego Chargers: Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech

LaDainian Tomlinson clearly has nothing left in the tank, and Darren Sproles proved early in 2009 when LDT was hurt that he can’t shoulder a full workload, so the Chargers need the physical presence in their backfield. Enter Jonathan Dwyer, who will complement Sproles’ quickness and shiftiness very nicely and keep the dual threat alive (or maybe revitalizing it) in the Chargers’ backfield.

29) New York Jets: Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan

For all the credit the Jets get for their crazy blitz schemes, they didn’t result in many sacks (32 on the season, tied for 18th in the NFL). Vernon Gholston has amassed a whopping zero sacks since being taken sixth overall in 2008, and will probably be let go this off-season. Seeing how effective rush linebackers can be a huge asset (DeMarcus Ware, Elvis Dumervil, Clay Matthews), the Jets need to upgrade that position, and Graham, despite playing for a terrible Wolverines team, was one of the few bright spots on that defense.

30) Minnesota Vikings: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

Pat Williams is considering retirement, which would tear down the vaunted Williams Wall, which is okay because I am here to build it again. Following in another Volunteers’ DT’s footsteps (Albert Haynesworth), Williams will come in and be effective in a pretty solid defense, especially if Pat Williams sticks around and he can learn from both guys.

31) New Orleans Saints: Brian Price, DT, UCLA

Sedrick Ellis has been good, but not great, since being drafted two years ago, but missed six games this season with an injury, and the Saints can shore up that run defense. In a defensive tackle-rich draft, Brian Price is somewhat forgotten and would be a big boost to Gregg Williams’ unit.

32) Indianapolis Colts: Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri

This defense is fast, and Weatherspoon would be a luxury. He looked unbelievably good at the Senior Bowl, and adding him would only make this defense that much faster and better. While I feel the offensive line could use a ton of help (they can’t run the ball), Peyton Manning makes things click on offense, so making it even more difficult for opposing offenses to score points would work just fine with the Colts.


Note: Asterisks indicate that there will be a coin flip to decide draft position between the two teams drafting one after the other. I used a little Coin Flip app on my iPhone, assigned "Heads" to the team that was first alphabetically by city location, and then moved on from there.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

NFL Power Rankings: Week 7

In the Week 7 installments of the Power Rankings, we’re going to actually see some movement. For just about the first time all season, there were some actual upsets, as well as some key injuries, which led to some crazy shifts. Each team’s record is in parentheses, and last week’s ranking is bracketed. Without further ado, I present the Week 7 NFL Power Rankings:

32. St. Louis Rams (0-6) [32]

The Rams showed some promise last week. While Jacksonville isn’t very good outside of Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Sims-Walker, St. Louis had a lead late in the game before succumbing in overtime. The problem is that, aside from Detroit in Week 8 (and maybe Tennessee in Week 14), there isn’t a seemingly winnable game on the schedule. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team go 0-16 just one year after the Lions became the first to have that dubious honor.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6) [31]

The good news for the Buccaneers was that they didn’t get shredded through the air last week (only 55 yards allowed). The bad news was that they played Jake Delhomme, who sucks, and the Panthers ran the ball 48 times for 267 yards. Much like St. Louis, Tampa Bay played hard and was competitive, but next week might be a bloodbath. The only team with a worse secondary than Tennessee is Tampa Bay, and Tom Brady just threw for about 1000 yards and thirty touchdowns in the first half against Tennessee last weekend. Couple the fact that this game is in London, despite being a home game for the Bucs, and we are going to have an ugly game on our hands. If you are a bettor, take the Pats to cover, even if the spread hits twenty points.

30. Tennessee Titans (0-6) [26]

The fact that a team who just got taken out back to the woodshed and is winless isn’t the worst team in the NFL speaks volumes about how bad the Rams and Buccaneers are. This team is getting shredded by opponents’ passing games (over 325 yards per game), with no help in sight. Cortland Finnegan just got hurt, downgrading the secondary from laughable to downright awful. It is truly remarkable to think that this team was the best in the league last year. Keep your heads up though Titans’ fans, the Vince Young era might start up again after its hiatus!

29. Washington Redskins (2-4) [25]

If they were the worst 2-3 team in the history of the NFL last week, they are certainly the worst 2-4 team ever. If you take out the Giants, the Redskins’ opponents have a combined record of 4-25. Three of those wins came against Washington, while Carolina also beat the lowly Buccaneers. Speaking of the Tampa Bay, they are one of two teams to fall victim to the mighty Redskins this season (the Rams are the other). The combined margin of victory from those two wins? Five points. Also, your players are asking for votes of confidence from management regarding the coach, who just lost his play-calling duties to a guy whose most recent employment was calling bingo at a retirement home. Since Tennessee can’t lose next week because it’s on a bye, expect Washington to fall again after they lose to Philadelphia on national television.

Interesting Note: Does anyone else besides me find it ironic that the last four teams in my power rankings are also last in an alphabetical list of NFL teams?

28. Cleveland Browns (1-5) [27]

Is it safe to say that Cleveland’s best quarterback option is Josh Cribbs? Sure he threw an interception last week, but so do Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, right? Why hasn’t Cleveland just lined Cribbs up thirty yards behind center and snapped it to him like a punt return? Their best offensive play is a Cribbs kick return. Also, Mangini has listed twenty-three players on this week’s injury report, which is most likely a record. On a side note, if you’re interested in real estate in the Cleveland area, I hear that Brady Quinn’s house is on the market, perhaps because he couldn’t afford it due to not playing?

27. Oakland Raiders (2-4) [30]

The first real WTF of the season. How in the hell does a team that would have been #32 in the rankings aside from an ugly win (until we saw Cleveland’s riveting 6-3 win over Buffalo) over Kansas beat my #5 team? I have no idea. I still don’t think that the Raiders are any good, especially JaMarcus Russell. Even though he was 17/28 last week for 224 yards, over one-third of those yards came on a twenty yard pass he completed to Zach Miller, who, in turn, took it eighty-six yards to the hizzy (props to Louis Murphy for throwing a block on three different Eagles on the play). They have a shot at three more wins (Kansas City, Washington, @Cleveland), but I think that’s the ceiling. Speaking of which, has anybody heard anything from Darrius Heyward-Bey? Michael Crabtree hasn’t even set foot on the field yet and he’s been in the news constantly.

26. Buffalo Bills (2-4) [28]

Yeah, that was painful to watch as a Jets fan. I don’t think the Bills are any good, I just think that they were less bad than the Jets on Sunday. Aided by five Mark Sanchez (and one Steven Weatherford) interceptions, the Bills were able to squeak out a win in the Meadowlands. With Trent Edwards likely out for at least a week with a concussion, they’ll rely heavily on the running back tandem of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, who should be getting a ton more work than he is. They certainly have winnable games in the future, but the anemic pass offense needs to get going, which I don’t think it will.

25. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) [29]

Finally the Chiefs leave behind their winless brothers at the bottom of the rankings, and all it took was a visit from Washington. The Titans should be bummed that they don’t get a shot at the Redskins this season, because they’d have a legitimate shot at winning. Anyway, Matt Cassel has done some nice things with this offense, and Dwayne Bowe looks as dominant as he has in the past. While I don’t see Kansas City winning many games this season, they can take pride in the fact that they’re at least playing hard each week. I am also anxiously awaiting Todd Haley benching Larry Johnson for Jamaal Charles so that my late round flier on Charles in fantasy drafts becomes validated.

24. Detroit Lions (1-5) [24]

The three cogs of their offense, Matthew Stafford, Kevin Smith, and Calvin Johnson, are all banged up. The bye week is certainly coming at the right time, as they were simply overmatched by an above average Packers offense and a very stout defense last week. Another team that I think has limited win potential, but will only get better and probably be dangerous in the future.

23. Carolina Panthers (2-3) [23]

Beating hapless Tampa Bay on a last minute touchdown doesn’t impress me in the least. You, Carolina, are not a good team. Like I said last week, they’ll get to 3-3 after beating Buffalo this week, but then go on a losing streak of at least four, and most likely five. The one positive note for the Panthers is that DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart looked great, meaning that Jake Delhomme didn’t have to do much. I also don’t generally praise teams whose best offensive weapons publicly state that they are no longer an asset to the offense.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) [21]

This team is an enigma. They played Indianapolis to a two-point game in Week 1, but got crushed by Seattle before barely beating St. Louis last week. Maurice Jones-Drew is definitely the guy there, and got rewarded for the rant he went on that I discussed last week. I could see them going anywhere from 5-11 to 10-6 and I wouldn’t be surprised. Mike Sims-Walker has been great so far (excluding his suspension for going out before the Seattle game), and helps the offense click better. Only time will tell with this team.

21. Seattle Seahawks (2-4) [19]

Matt Hasselbeck claimed that whenever his mom was in attendance at Seahawks home games, they were undefeated. The number was somewhere in the teens I think, which should have gotten it one of those sections on SportsCenter where they talk about the best streaks of all time. On July 17, 1941, Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak came to an end against the Cleveland Indians. That makes the Arizona Cardinals the Cleveland Indians of the NFL, as, on October 18, 2009, they ended Mama Hasselbeck’s streak. It’ll be tough for Seattle to make noise in the NFC West since it already trails San Francisco and the Cleveland Indians Arizona Cardinals by a game and a half, with a head to head loss to each, but the bye week should help them regroup. I’m not ready to write them off yet, so we’ll see about them in a few weeks.

20. San Diego Chargers (2-3) [18]

I posted these rankings on a message board on ESPN and was scoffed at by a diehard Chargers fan saying that they were too low. After seeing them lose the Monday night game (and, most likely, the AFC West), to Denver I can say that I disagree. The defense isn’t very good. In five games, it has only seven sacks and four interceptions, and doesn’t show any promise of getting better any time soon. LaDainian Tomlinson showed some burst for the first time all season, but I want to see him sustain it for a few weeks before I say he’s back. Philip Rivers doesn’t have enough time to throw, as the Broncos proved to us. He fumbled three times, including on the final drive because the line couldn’t block A Gap blitzes, which get to the quarterback the quickest. They’ve got two games against Kansas City and another with Oakland upcoming, so they can prove me wrong by dominating those outings.

19. Houston Texans (3-3) [22]

This is the only AFC South team without a loss to the Colts, who they play twice in the next six weeks. Sorry Houston, but I don’t see you beating Indy in either matchup. They are definitely a wild card candidate, but they’ll have to do some damage before tough season ending games at Miami and versus New England. Steve Slaton appears to be coming around, Matt Schaub is proving that he’s a top quarterback in this league when healthy, and Andre Johnson is still a man among boys.

18. Arizona Cardinals (3-2) [20]

I still think Arizona’s Achilles heel will be its inability to run the ball. With Kurt Warner slinging it again and Larry Fitzgerald dominating, they have no problem scoring. A healthy Anquan Boldin would make this team a much bigger threat, so I’ll keep an eye on his ailings. The defense has been surprisingly good, as it’s #1 against the run, and somewhat serviceable against the pass. Like I said earlier, the biggest problem lies in the fact that the team cannot run the ball to work the clock when it has a lead. If they don’t figure that out, I don’t think they will make too much noise.

17. New York Jets (3-3) [9]

Ouch. Tied for the biggest drop of the week, the Jets lost more than just the game on Sunday. Who I thought to be the most irreplaceable player on the team, Kris Jenkins, is now done for the season after tearing his ACL on a standard NFL play. I honestly believe that the Jets would have at least tied that game with Jenkins playing, despite Mark Sanchez’s debacle. The Bills were getting five or six yards per carry after he went out, which is a trend I fear might continue as the season progresses. Luckily they get the Raiders this week, which should allow them to get back above .500 before another tough test with Miami. As a fan I am happy that Mark Sanchez is being accountable for his horrific play, and I continue to think that he will be a successful NFL quarterback in the future.

16. Dallas Cowboys (3-2) [17]

Teams 10-19 are all question marks to me, and I did the best to rank them as I could. Dallas, on paper, should be great. They’ve got three very good running backs, a seemingly talented quarterback, and a great tight end. Nobody seems to know what Roy Williams is as a player, but the general consensus is that he sucks. Too bad Jerry Jones overpaid for him and is essentially going to force him to be a part of the offense. Also, what happened to Demarcus Ware? He had twenty sacks last season, but only two so far this year. The defense needs to get going in order for this team to go anywhere this year.

15. Miami Dolphins (2-3) [16]

To me, this is the most dangerous team lurking in this middle pack. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams run the Wildcat flawlessly, and it’s damn near impossible to stop when those guys are reading defenses properly. Chad Henne is good. Period. He started four years at Michigan, and didn’t seem fazed in the least by the Jets’ blitzes two weeks ago. As long as the defense is able to stop opposing offenses so that the offense doesn’t have to hang thirty every week, they will win a bunch of ballgames. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them beat New Orleans this weekend and continue their march to a wild card berth.

14. San Francisco 49ers (3-2) [14]

The bye week came at a great time to the 49ers. After a heartbreaking loss to Minnesota, a bounceback game against the Rams, and a shellacking at the hands of Atlanta, San Francisco got a chance to regroup, get Frank Gore healthy, and get Michael Crabtree acclimated to the offense. I love hearing that Josh Morgan, who lost his starting spot to Crabtree, was still helping Crabtree learn the offense anyway. Those are the kind of team-first, character guys you build a squad around. I hope good things come for him in the future. If the offense gets going, Patrick Willis and the defense will take care of the rest and this team could easily roll to an NFC West crown.

13. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) [5]

Bye bye Eliminator Challenge. A last-minute change of my pick from the Steelers to the Eagles was the wrong move, as the Eagles thought they were playing in Philadelphia last Sunday and didn’t show up to play in Oakland, so a combination of fifty-three men and women wearing Eagles jerseys who showed up for the game had a massive tailgate and then played the game against the Raiders, falling just short in a valiant effort, 13-9. Wait, that didn’t happen? Well, it sounds more plausible than what took place, at the very least. I still think Philadelphia is a good team and will be in the playoffs, but a loss to Oakland is inexcusable.

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) [7]

The defense was the latest victim of Matt Schaub’s march through opposing secondaries, as they surrendered just under 400 yards to the Texans through the air. Cedric Benson cooled off a bit last week, only rushing for forty-four yards on sixteen carries. The loss of Antwan Odom for the year will be huge, so we’ll see how they replace him on the defensive line. After a tough game at home against Chicago and a bye, Cincinnati will show us what it’s made of with back-to-back games against Baltimore and at Pittsburgh.

11. Green Bay Packers (3-2) [15]

How good is Aaron Rodgers? He doesn’t have an offensive line and is still completing 65% of his passes for nearly 300 yards per game, with a 4:1 TD-to-interception ratio. Oh, if that wasn’t good enough, he also has a rushing touchdown. And he saves kids from burning buildings. To complement Rodgers, Ryan Grant has been consistent, albeit not great, and the defense is fresh off of a shutout, even if it was against a depleted Detroit Lions team. Still, tough divisional foes in Chicago and Minnesota make the road to the playoffs that much tougher.

10. Chicago Bears (3-2) [12]

I know that the Packers beat the Bears head-to-head and they have identical 3-2 records, yet I have Chicago ranked ahead of Green Bay. If, in your mind, that’s wrong, then switch them and mentally put Green Bay at ten and Chicago at eleven. I think Chicago has the more impressive win (over Pittsburgh), and that Jay Cutler has been infinitely better since his debacle in Week 1. The big question mark here is Matt Forte. Where is the guy we saw last year? Have opposing defenses learned how to stop him? Is he not as good as we thought? I have questions, but only Matt Forte and the Bears have answers. Much like Houston and Indianapolis, I also like the fact that Chicago still gets two cracks at Minnesota, in which they can get even in the loss column and take a head-to-head advantage.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) [13]

They are starting to resemble the team we thought they’d be. Mike Tomlin has wisely named Rashard Mendenhall his starter, which I think will benefit them in the long run. Ben Roethlisberger is slinging the ball all over the field, yet is completing 72.5% of his passes. Hines Ward is smiling, while on pace to catch over 100 balls, and the defense is still pretty solid, especially now that Hair Polamalu is back. Four out of the next five are very tough (Minnesota, BYE, @Denver on MNF, Cincinnati, @Kansas City, @Baltimore on Sunday night). If they get three or four of them, they will have come out of the schedule very well.

8. Baltimore Ravens (3-3) [11]

Steven F-ing Hauscka is what the Ravens fans are probably saying to themselves (and each other) right now. A 44-yard field goal in a dome isn’t terribly difficult for a kicker, and I know that he was under pressure and the Metrodome is loud, but kickers are expected to make those kicks, and Hauschka will be the first one to tell you that. Anyway, despite three consecutive losses (to teams with a combined 14-4 record), I still think this is a playoff team. Ray Rice has emerged as an elite back in the NFL, Joe Flacco is amazing, and the defense, while not what it once was, can still make enough plays to win games.

7. Atlanta Falcons (4-1) [8]

This is the one team that has a remote chance of challenging New Orleans in the NFC South. Matt Ryan is amazing, Roddy White confirmed that he is, in fact, out of his coma, Tony Gonzalez is a beast, and Michael Turner is running like he did last year again. I definitely think they’re a playoff bound team again, and am anxious to see how they perform on the road against Dallas this week before next week’s showdown with the Saints in the Superdome.

6. New York Giants (5-1) [2]

The drop wasn’t because I think they’re the sixth best team, but more due to the fact that New Orleans took it to them last week. Drew Brees threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns. Seven different Saints scored a touchdown, showing that the Giants can be beaten in a variety of ways. The nail in the coffin was Reggie Bush’s touchdown before halftime that made it a seventeen-point game again. I still don’t think that the team is in trouble as far as winning the NFC East or making the playoffs, but that showing was one they’ll want to forget.

5. New England Patriots (4-2) [10]

Say hello to your 2009 AFC East champions. I know that it was Tennessee who currently can’t stop the Little Giants’ connection of Junior to Hot Hands, but a fifty-nine-point victory over any NFL team is damn impressive. Tom Brady wasn’t overthrowing receivers, and Wes Welker was, for the first time, not on the injury report. They are going to continue to roll and piss me off, and I cannot even imagine what’s going to happen next time they play the Jets. I hate the Patriots…a lot.

4. Minnesota Vikings (6-0) [4]

I know they just beat my #8 team, but this is a team that could easily be 4-2. I understand that they made a play to beat San Francisco, so I give them credit for that. However, they should have lost last week’s game. Brad Childress was apparently neutered as a child, because he had no balls whatsoever in his playcalling at the end of the game. He played for a field goal to put his team up by two, even though that meant leaving Baltimore nearly two minutes to run out its offense (that Minnesota’s defense couldn’t stop in the entire second half) to get in field goal range. I still don’t trust Childress, even if he does have Adrian Peterson in his backfield.

3. Denver Broncos (6-0) [6]

What else does this team need to do to get attention? They’re good, end of story. Josh McDaniels has gotten them to play hard, and the defense is superb. Also, even though it doesn’t match the hideous AFL uniforms the Broncos wear, McDaniels’ pale blue hoodie is simply awesome and I kind of want one. Kyle Orton has been great, making McDaniels’ adamant claim that Orton was his guy going into the season make him seem even smarter. I’m pretty sure they already won the AFC West, so even a brutal second half schedule, including these games: @Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, @Indianapolis, @Philadelphia can’t make up for games at Washington, versus Oakland, and a home-and-away with Kansas City. Say hello to your first guaranteed playoff team of 2009.

2. Indianapolis Colts (5-0) [1]

Obviously they didn’t do anything to deserve to drop one spot this week, it’s just that I think New Orleans did enough to take the #1 spot. No matter how much praise I give Peyton Manning, it’s never enough. This guy could make Helen Keller, Stevie Wonder, and Ray Charles Pro Bowlers. Not only does he make the right reads at the line of scrimmage, but his passes always seem to be the kind you couldn’t place any better. The return of Anthony Gonzalez isn’t as important now as it may have seemed in Week 1 after he went down, and Bob Sanders should be back soon, which vastly improves the Colts run defense. Another win probably gives this division to Indianapolis, who I think will end up being the #1 seed in the AFC.

1. New Orleans Saints (5-0) [3]

By far the most impressive performance of the week, and probably the entire season unfolded in New Orleans last Sunday. New Orleans embarrassed the Giants, getting touchdowns from: Mike Bell, Jeremy Shockey, Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, and Heath Evans. Notice that list didn’t include their best running back (Pierre Thomas), which is scary. I don’t know if there is a team besides the Colts that can keep up with them on both sides of the ball, which would make them the Super Bowl favorites in the NFC right now. As I mentioned earlier, I think they could easily lose to Miami and the Wildcat on the road this weekend because I think that offense is so difficult to stop and the Dolphins might do to New Orleans what they did to Indianapolis earlier in the year, which is keep the Saints offense on the sidelines. I don’t know if I am ready to elevate Brees to Peyton Manning status just yet, which a quarterback reaches when he understands the time on the clock, the number of timeouts, and how best to position his team for a score, and then goes out and flawlessly executes that plan. If Brees does this, I think New Orleans gets to 6-0 to set up a HUGE game with Atlanta. Nonetheless, the Saints deserve to be atop the rankings this week.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

NFL Power Rankings: Week 6

I know that I haven't posted for a while, and I am sorry for that. I will try to post more often in the coming weeks, which is good news for all two of my followers. Anyway, on to the post. Obviously this isn’t a new invention, as multiple sites and people conduct their own power rankings on a weekly basis. Due to the fact that there are some very awful teams and some great ones, my power rankings will probably be relatively similar to others at the extreme ends. With further ado, here are my power rankings for Week 6 (I am doing them in inverse order, because it’s far more interesting and suspenseful to read them that way):

32. St. Louis Rams (0-5)

There really isn’t much to say about this team. They are averaging less than seven points per game while giving up nearly thirty. Granted they haven’t played the easiest schedule in the NFL (their combined opponents record is 14-10), but they haven’t exactly been competitive, excluding a 9-7 defeat to the lowly Washington Redskins, and the schedule doesn’t get much friendlier. Unless they beat Detroit in Week 8, it’s very possible that we see a team go 0-16 for the second consecutive season.

Note: Shannon Sharpe summed up the Rams best last Sunday when he said of them, “They have their bye in Week 9, but they’re going to lose that too.”

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)

Another one of the teams who’s terrible, Tampa’s biggest downfall is its pass defense, which is struggling mightily in transitioning from a Cover 2 to playing more man-to-man. However, this team has shown some signs of life, as Josh Johnson seems to be leading the offense to more promising things. If the defense can solve some of its problems, they may get to three or four wins.

30. Oakland Raiders (1-4)

I know, I know. They have a win, and it comes against a winless team that I’ll be ranking higher than them. I don’t care. This team is downright terrible. In fact, if not for that win against Kansas City, I’d have no problem ranking Oakland at the bottom of the list. Their coach might be going to jail soon for assaulting one of his assistants, their starting quarterback sucks, is overweight, sucks, doesn’t care, and sucks. In fact, I tried to use the argument on Monday when Mark Sanchez got called for intentional grounding that, “JaMarcus Russell routinely misses wide receivers by that much and doesn’t get called for grounding.” This team is destined for failure as long as Al Davis is involved with the operations.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (0-5)

Unlike the Raiders, I don’t believe the Chiefs have thrown in the towel yet this season. They nearly beat the Cowboys last week, which isn’t saying much, but is still respectable. Dwayne Bowe came to life last week, and, once Jamaal Charles gets more work, this team can do some damage. I expect them to beat the Redskins this week for their first win.

28. Buffalo Bills (1-4)

Boy do I see enjoying an AFC East rival (and one with Terrell Owens on its roster) struggle. Obviously, firing your offensive coordinator before the season starts is not something teams want to emulate, as all three teams who did (Tampa, Kansas City, and Buffalo) are in the bottom five of the power rankings (and are a combined 1-14). Dick Jauron is going to be fired soon, I can’t see him lasting much longer in Buffalo. Plus, I am excited to see Owens go crazy in a few weeks…I’ve already got my popcorn ready, and so does Hitler.

27. Cleveland Browns (1-4)

Not surprisingly, Cleveland is enjoined with Buffalo in the rankings. They could barely separate each other on the field last weekend (a pathetic 6-3 Browns win), so why should they be any different on paper? Derek Anderson went 2/17 for 23 yards and an interception! I wouldn’t want to entrust my team to that all year long. I can say one nice thing about Cleveland though, which is that it has given the Jets Mark Sanchez and Braylon Edwards so far this season. For that, we Jets fans thank you.

26. Tennessee Titans (0-5)

2008 Titans – Albert Haynesworth + Being one year older across the board = Disaster. This team, much like the Bucs, cannot stop the pass. Teams consistently beat them through the air, and the Titans offensive strength lies in its running game (Chris Johnson, but not big, fat LenDale White [copyright Matthew Berry]), only they’re constantly behind, so they have to rely on the 36 year-old Kerry Collins to bring them back, which clearly hasn’t happened yet. While they’ll get a few wins this year, they’ll be picking in the Top 10 come April.

25. Washington Redskins (2-3)

Has there ever been a worse 2-3 team in the history of the NFL? I mean, they can’t do anything. They have yet to play a team that, at the time of the game, had a win on the season. While they looked respectable in the season opener against the Giants, that was the extent of their excellence. They helped the Lions end their 19-game losing streak, let the Panthers get their first W on the year, and beat the Rams and the Buccaneers (numbers 31 and 32 in the power rankings) by a combined five points for their only two wins. I forsee them helping Kansas City get its first win this weekend, and a further plummet in the rankings.

24. Detroit Lions (1-4)

They are playing hard, and I will never knock a team for that. They’ve assembled a nice young core with Matthew Stafford, Kevin Smith, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew. The problem is that the problem isn’t the offense, it’s the defense. They have allowed a league high 162 points through five weeks, a problem I don’t see getting much better. Winnable games against St. Louis and Cleveland lie ahead, but I don’t think the team can get any more than four or five wins this season.

23. Carolina Panthers (1-3)

They are a Byron Westbrook muffed punt away from being 0-4 and closer to the bottom of this ranking. As is, they won the game against Washington and sit at 1-3. The offensive line doesn’t seem capable of opening up holes like it did last season, when it allowed DeAngelo Williams to seemingly score at will. Jake Delhomme, while looking better since his dismal start to the season, still isn’t a great quarterback, and certainly not one I would want leading my team. Upcoming games against doormats Tampa Bay and Buffalo should allow Carolina to get to .500, but a brutal schedule down the stretch doesn’t bode well for the team.

22. Houston Texans (2-3)

This is where the rankings are getting tougher. There is certainly a huge falloff from Houston to Carolina. I put the Texans here because they’ve already lost two games at home (which was their strong point last season), have a miserable defense (it was on pace to be the worst of all-time through three weeks), and Steve Slaton, last season’s fantasy darling, has been disappointing. Andre Johnson can only do so much, which, as he proved last week, is quite a bit, and the Texans need more than that.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)

With a head-to-head win over Houston, the Jaguars get the nod over the Texans in the power rankings. They’ve got a nice 2-1 record within their division, but the Week 1 loss to the Colts could come back to haunt them, since they are already three games behind division-leading Indianapolis. I don’t really get this team though, as it got waxed by Seattle last week (41-0) after putting up 31 and 37 points in the two previous weeks. Maurice Jones-Drew pouted about the offense having no identity for fifteen minutes after the Seattle game, so let’s see how the team responds going forward.

20. Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

This team is having problems defending the pass and throwing the ball downfield, two things that helped them during their run to the Super Bowl last season. They also can’t establish any semblance of a running game, which hurts them in the later stages of a game when trying to protect a lead (like last week against Houston). Next week’s game against the following team in my rankings should help sort things out a bit more.

19. Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

If Matt Hasselbeck can stay healthy, watch out. He’s got two great weapons in T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Nate Burleson. The defense is underrated, and Qwest Field is a legitimate home-field advantage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a run at the division title during the second half of the season.

18. San Diego Chargers (2-2)

We will find out what this San Diego team is all about this Monday when they square off against the undefeated Broncos. The Chargers barely beat Oakland and struggled to beat Miami, which is looking like a more impressive victory with each passing week. Close losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh are tough to figure out as well, since both of those teams are teetering between the upper and middle echelons of the rankings. I think the Chargers will win this week, because a loss will all but mean the Broncos will win the division.

17. Dallas Cowboys (3-2)

This middle pack of teams can go either way. I honestly have no idea if the Cowboys are good or bad, so I am sticking them in the middle. They’re 3-2, squeaked by the winless Chiefs last weekend, were unimpressive in beating Carolina, and also beat the Buccaneers. However, their only losses came to the 5-0 Giants and the 5-0 Broncos, who are both elite teams this year. Tony Romo can shine or disappoint, and you never seem to be able to predict which Tony will show up. After getting this week off, Dallas plays four of its next six at home before playing the Giants again. I could see them winning four or five of those and setting up a good showdown with the G-Men that could decide the Cowboys playoff fate.

16. Miami Dolphins (2-3)

Once again, I am ranking a team in front of a team it beat. In this case, Miami is above San Diego. That Monday night loss was crushing as a Jets fan, because the defense got abused by Miami’s wildcat offense. In addition, Chad Henne did exactly what he will have to do for the Dolphins. He didn’t turn the ball over, converted a few key third downs (he was impeccable on the final drive), and connected with Ted Ginn Jr. on a homerun play that the Dolphins will get a shot at every game. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams run the Wildcat to perfection, and the constant personnel changes keeps defenses on their toes. This team will be tough to deal with down the road.

15. Green Bay Packers (2-2)

The Packers have monumental problems on their offensive line. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked twenty times in four games, which is about 14% of the time he drops back to pass. In layman’s terms, “That’s not very good.” Unless Rodgers is given some more time to stand up and make throws, Greg Jennings won’t be much of a factor, which doesn’t bode well for Green Bay. With two respectable losses (Cincinnati and Minnesota), and a tight win against Chicago, Green Bay looks like it might struggle to win consistently unless it fixes its problems.

14. San Francisco 49ers (3-2)

This team is supposed to go out and hit people in the mouth. Well, it was the recipient of the oral blow last week, as Atlanta came into San Francisco and lambasted the 49ers. This followed a heartbreaking, last second loss at Minnesota. I think the bye week has come at a great time for San Francisco, as it will allow Mike Singletary to right the ship, and get Frank Gore back to full health. The other big thing for the 49ers is that they are already 3-0 in their division, and are probably the best team in the NFC West.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

I don’t know if their reputation is leading me to rank the Steelers higher, or I think this is where they belong. They opened up the season with what appeared to be a gritty win against a game Titans team, but that victory looks worse and worse as Tennessee keeps losing. Consecutive losses to Chicago and Cincinnati are acceptable, but not impressive. I think the turning point of the season may have been Rashard Mendenhall’s breakout game against San Diego, and expect him to get the bulk of the carries going forward, even if Willie Parker is healthy. With Hair Polamalu returning this week, the team seems to be back on track.

12. Chicago Bears (3-1)

After Week 1, Bears fans were cursing Jay Cutler and his turnover prone-ness. Now? Not so much. He is making plays and leading the Bears to victory after victory. They still have four divisional games left, including two against Minnesota, so the NFC North might be one of the tightest races in the league.

11. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

Three weeks ago, ESPN had Baltimore at #1 in its rankings. That was due to the fact that the Ravens were thumping inferior opponents. After getting dominated (not on the scoreboard, but physically) by the Patriots and the Bengals, the Ravens have been humbled a bit. I am interested to see how they play this week against 5-0 Minnesota before their bye week. Making Ray Rice more involved in the offense is their best bet, so it’ll be something to keep an eye on.

10. New England Patriots (3-2)

For me, another jump up from the previous team. The Patriots, despite getting underwhelming production from Tom Brady and Randy Moss (Patriots fans would agree with me that neither has played anywhere near what he’s capable of) have beaten two solid teams in Baltimore and Atlanta, and have lost to the 5-0 Broncos and “should be 4-1 but are actually 3-2” Jets. I hope the Patriots go 3-13, but they’ll be solid, as always.

9. New York Jets (3-2)

Monday night was incredibly disappointing as a fan. I knew it wasn’t going to be a good night when the Dolphins marched down the field on the opening drive, which culminated in a touchdown after 7:30. That was the longest scoring drive the Jets surrendered all season, and stayed that way until the fourth quarter, when the Dolphins finished a drive that consumed 8:41 off the clock. As I already said about Miami, they look to be on the upswing, but I hope that this loss motivates the Jets in the upcoming weeks. I also would like to point out that Braylon Edwards looks AWESOME. I am so excited about the Sanchez-Edwards hook up that I may buy, and wear, both of their jerseys…at the same time.

8. Atlanta Falcons (3-1)

The loss to New England had to be upsetting, since the Falcons didn’t put up much of a fight, but they certainly came out of their bye week strongly. They DOMINATED the 49ers on the road, Michael Turner was running hard, and Roddy White came out of his coma. Those two, when combined with Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez, create a team with some of the most offensive firepower in the league. It is up to Atlanta to challenge New Orleans for the division title, since Tampa Bay and Carolina are no better than five win teams.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (4-1)

“Who dey! Who dey! Who dey think gonna beat dem Bengals? (Aside from the Denver Broncos) NOBODY!” This team is legit. Cedric Benson leads the NFL in rushing, and is running harder than he ever has in his career. Carson Palmer is getting back into his stride and knows how to win. Ochocinco is quieter than normal, which has coincided with his being more productive. Cincinnati may be able to compete with the big dogs, as they’ve already beaten Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Hopefully they keep it up and make the season interesting.

6. Denver Broncos (5-0)

Josh McDaniels has this team believing. He has Brandon Marshall playing extremely well, perhaps only bested by Andre Johnson so far this year in his domination. Kyle Orton is making plays and not beating the team with turnovers like he did in the preseason. The defense, which I thought would be abysmal coming into the season, has been superb. What else can I say? A win against San Diego this week will move them up the rankings and, in my opinion, clinch the division after just six weeks. About the only thing that this team has done wrong so far is wear the world’s most hideous uniforms last week against New England.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)

The only one-loss team that gets ranked above an undefeated. The Eagles look very good. Donovan McNabb is slinging it, and Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson should give opposing corners headaches with their abilities to stretch the field. Those speedsters open up the field for Brent Celek, who has done plenty of damage thus far. Brian Westbrook now has a backup that may be more dangerous than him in LeSean McCoy, and the defense is playing in Jim Johnson’s memory. Philadelphia should challenge the Giants for the NFC East crown.

4. Minnesota Vikings (5-0)

They’re undeniably good. Defenses gear up to stop Adrian Peterson, so Brett Favre beats them through the air. The defense, while not as dominant as it has been in the past, is still solid once again. The question marks are still there, however. Can Brett Favre stay healthy and play at a high level the entire season? I can tell you as a disgruntled fan that Favre did no such thing last season. Playing indoors might help him when it gets colder, so only time will tell. Can the team keep Brad Childress from having to make key adjustments when it matters? The schedule has been light so far, but games against the Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, and Giants all lurk. Will Childress make the right calls or look confounded again on the sidelines? Finally, how will the rest of the NFC North play? 3-1 Chicago still gets two cracks at Minnesota, and Green Bay gets a revenge opportunity at Lambeau. If Minnesota can weather the storm that is the second half of their schedule, they could be dangerous come playoff time.

3. New Orleans Saints (4-0)

These top three are so close that I could re-order them any which way and be comfortable with how it turned out. I put the Saints here because Drew Brees has looked rather human the last two games. I know that he hasn’t had to do much because the running game has been brilliant, but it isn’t always easy to turn things on and off. The showdown with the Giants this weekend will reveal to us more what these teams are about.

2. New York Giants (5-0)

In my opinion, the Giants are only going to get better. The defense has been banged up, yet it continues to put up great showings. Eli Manning has been nothing short of spectaular, but the plantar fasciitis he suffers from could be problematic in the future. Steve Smith is quickly dropping “The Other” from the front of his name, as he’s been amazing through five games. Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks are also dominating, which is remarkable because all three are receivers the Giants themselves drafted. It’s difficult to pinpoint whether a wide receiver’s skills will translate to the professional level, yet the Giants have hit on all three. Like I said above, I am excited about this weekend’s game with the Saints. I still don’t know who I will pick in my Pigskin Pick’Em, and probably won’t until game time.

1. Indianapolis Colts (5-0)

New coach, same results. Indianapolis is 5-0, and already has a stranglehold on the division. Peyton Manning should be given the MVP Award right now. It honestly doesn’t matter what his defense does, because I have complete faith that he’ll lead the Colts’ offense down the field for however many points it needs. The Monday night game in Week 2 against Miami highlighted that. Despite having the ball for less than fifteen minutes, Manning was able to lead the Colts down the field when it mattered. The fact that Marvin Harrison is officially gone (his corpse was trotting out there last year) and Anthony Gonzalez got hurt Week 1 hasn’t hampered Manning at all. He just turned Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon into overnight superstars. I just cannot bring myself to bet against the Colts at all right now, and, until someone beats Peyton, won’t believe it to be possible.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Spread Picking Competition: Week 2

Ahh, one week is in the books and we know a bit more about the teams. The Colts looked less impressive than I expected. The Jets looked better than I thought they would be. The Rams, Lions, Broncos, and Bengals were who we thought they were. Alas, I should be a little better prepared to make these picks. First of all, a recap from last week:

I went 9-7. I picked nine of the first eleven games I had listed correctly, before going absolutely cold. The afternoon and Sunday and Monday night games were NOT kind to me. Aside from getting the 49ers-Cardinals game correct, I missed the Giants (won by 6, spread was 6.5), I don't want to talk about the Rams, Aaron Rodgers beat me with a late TD pass, and the Chargers and Pats struggled to beat crappy opponents and neither came close to covering. If you read the first week, you know this is a competition between myself and my girlfriend Sarah, whose blog can be found here. She also went 9-7, although her picks were different from mine, which goes to show you, it doesn't matter how you pick them, you can't be very successful. Anyway, on to this week's picks, lines taken from here (my picks are in bold):

Oakland (+3) at Kansas City

If you didn't see what I had to say about the Chiefs after their dismal performance last week, either scroll down to the next entry or click here. They just aren't very good, and the Raiders actually showed some promise.

Houston at Tennessee (-6.5)

Tennessee won't be happy after losing a nail biter to Pittsburgh, especially when Rob Bironas missed two field goals in regulation. Houston's offense sputtered at home against the Jets, and I think the Titans' defensive unit is stronger, plus the Texans don't play well on the road.

New England at New York Jets (+3.5)

This one is strictly done because I am a Jets fan and Sarah is a Pats fan. Also, the Jets looked good enough to merit me picking them. Their defense was stout and the offense is very solid, which works when the Patriots defense is terrible.

New Update: Apparently the Patriots only serviceable middle linebacker, Jerrod Mayo, is out 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain. No Bruschi, no Vrabel, no Seymour, and no Mayo. Since Eric Mangold is a man at center, he should be able to contain Vince Wolfork well enough for the Jets RBs to get to the second level, where last year's starters (aside from Adalius Thomas) are all gone. I'm liking this pick even more now.

Cincinnati at Green Bay (-9)

The Packers defense looked great, and the Bungles couldn't move the ball on the hapless Broncos. Plus Green Bay gets to play at Lambeau.

Minnesota (-9.5) at Detroit

Let me break it down for you. It's this versus this.

New Orleans (+1.5) at Philadelphia

Donovan McNabb is hurt and most likely not playing. Drew Brees is really, really good. Drew Brees is not Jake Delhomme, meaning that the Eagles defense will not put up a similar effort to the one they had on Sunday (which nearly cost me a fantasy matchup). The Saints play just enough defense to win.

Carolina at Atlanta (-6)

Jake Delhomme has 11 turnovers in his last two non-preseason games. Jake Delhomme plays for the Panthers. The Panthers play in Carolina.

St. Louis at Washington (-9.5)

Until the Rams can score I won't pick them, especially since it burned me last week.

Arizona (+3) at Jacksonville

I know I said Arizona sucks, but this is my random road team covering pick.

Seattle at San Francisco (-1.5)

The 49ers respond to Mike Singletary because the players fear playing with ten players and getting penalized all the way and he wants winners (his opinion on losers couldn't be found). Also, Seattle on the road means it has no home-field advantage. Seriously, that is some sagacious stuff from me right there. The home-field advantage is important to them, that's what I was getting at.

Tampa Bay (+4.5) at Buffalo

Buffalo finds a way to lose games. At least they don't have to play on Monday Night Football again.

Cleveland (+3) at Denver

Both teams are awful. I have a feeling Denver would be an underdog in this game if not for their miracle Week 1 win.

Baltimore (+3) at San Diego

The offense looked great and will run all over San Diego. Plus Tomlinson is already hurt.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Chicago

Both teams are missing a defensive stud (Hair Polamalu for the Steelers and Brian Urlacher for the Bears). The Steelers prevail in this honor du-el since they can make up for the loss of Polamalu and will bait Cutler into throwing a few more INTs.

New York Giants at Dallas (-3)

Dallas has beaten the Giants four of the past six times in Big D, and they do it again behind Tony Romo's right arm.

Indianapolis (-3) at Miami

Yes, Miami gets the home crowd on Monday Night. I just don't think they're a very good team. I went with Indy last week at home and lost, but I think Peyton Manning lights up the Dolphins secondary and leaves Miami in an 0-2 hole and two games behind the division leader after the Pats and Jets tangle.

Hopefully I have a better week this time around.

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 9-7

NFL Week 1 in the Books

Ahh, the NFL hath arriveth and I couldn't be happier. To kick things off, my Jets looked PHENOMENAL. Not only did they silence everyone's darling pick in Houston, but they shut down that seemingly unstoppable offense in Houston, where the Texans are supposed to be good. Rex Ryan has worked wonders with that defense, even without starters Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace in the lineup. Oh yeah, and there was a good-looking guy from USC who announced himself to the NFL. His stat line won't jump off the screen at you [18/31, 272 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (that's 12 fantasy points in a standard scoring league)], but what blew me away was his poise and pocket presence. He seemed to be able to sense the rush at all times and avoid it without actually seeing it, which led to the following exchange between myself and my college roommate Curly, a fellow Jets fan:

Me: I'm totally gay for Mark Sanchez...no homo.
Curly: Yeah, me too. He has some sexy hands and a delicious right arm.
Me: It's the way he moves his feet that makes me go from six to midnight, though.

The moral of the story: Mark Sanchez is going to be a stud in the NFL and already has Jets fans salivating.

OK, enough about how happy I am for this Jets season and the way it could turn out. On to other reactions:

Don't let the crazy ending to the Denver-Cincinnati game fool you...both teams are brutal, really, really brutal.

Despite having 31 first downs, 501 yards of total offense, and possessing the ball for just under 40 minutes, it took Baltimore until the 58-minute mark to take the lead for good against the Chiefs, whose comparative stats were: 9 first downs and 188 yards of total offense (with a paltry 29 yards on the ground). I can hear Kansas City fans praying for Matt Cassell's return to get the defeated Brodie Croyle (literally defeated, as in he's 0-9 as a starter in the NFL) off the field. It's going to be a long season in KC.

The Patriots and Chargers played awfully. Both should have lost the games they played, but were saved by the fact that they played teams that suck worse on a good day than either of those teams does on a bad day. I've always said that "good teams find ways to win games, but bad teams find ways to lose them." On Monday night, the latter was in full effect. Buffalo may not win more than 4 games all season and TO will struggle and whine in the cold weather...I'm excited. Also, as long as Al Davis is owning and operating the team in Oakland, I'm excited.

Calvin Johnson is awesome. But the Lions' defense is better at being bad than Johnson is at being good. Detroit is headed for another last place finish in the NFC North.

The NFC West may be more miserable this year than it was last year. The Cardinals have proved that they do, in fact, suck. Their run to the Super Bowl was a product of the offense firing (not clicking, since that's not what a cylinder does) on all cylinders and the defense making enough stops to win. Oh, they also got to play against Jake Delhomme in the playoffs. They'll go 6-10 this year and Seattle or San Francisco will win the division at 8-8 and get crushed in the playoffs. Also the Rams will finish with the league's worst record.

I have some more reactions, but will end now so I can get to making my spread picks.

Monday, September 7, 2009

Spread Picking Competition: Week 1

This will be a year long competition between myself and my girlfriend, Sarah, whose blog can be found here: http://realwomenwatchfootball.blogspot.com/. Is this an idea borrowed from Bill Simmons and his wife's little competition? Yes. Is it different? Yes, it is. How so, you may ask? My girlfriend loves football and watches it religiously, while Bill Simmons' wife doesn't know the difference between a safety that awards two points and the two safeties that line up in the defensive backfield on every play. Starting next week, I shall give you all a running count of a who is in the lead in our competition. Without further ado, here we go (spreads are taken from http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_point_spreads.shtml); my pick is bolded:

Tennessee (+6) at Pittsburgh

This should be a typical Steelers game. Ugly, low-scoring, and defensive minded. It also should have been the AFC Championship game last season, if not for a Chris Johnson injury and Alge Crumpler fumbles against Baltimore. I could see either team pulling this one out, but think Pittsburgh has just enough, winning 17-14, but still allowing Tennessee to cover.

Miami at Atlanta (-4)

These are two playoff teams from last year who I don't see returning to promised land this year. I think Miami didn't get much better, and cannot stay as healthy as they did last year while Atlanta just has too much firepower for them at home.

Kansas City at Baltimore (-13)

I just don't think Kansas City is quite there yet, plus I don't think Cassell with be playing. The combination of a relatively inexperienced quarterback (probably Brodie Croyle) against a vicious Baltimore D, at home, means this one could get ugly.

Philadelphia (-1) at Carolina

While I hate Michael Vick, I also think that Philadelphia is that good, while the NFC South as a whole is mediocre. Just about any Philly win covers this one, so I think they're a safe pick.

Denver at Cincinnati (-4.5)

Is it unreasonable to think that I may never pick Denver to cover this entire season? The team has been in disarray since Josh McDaniels took over, and their shifting from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and not having the personnel to pull it off means things could get uglier this season than they currently are.

Minnesota (-4) at Cleveland

Since so many NFL players use Twitter nowadays, I'd think that if Eric Mangini told his players who would be the starting QB, we'd have found out. That leads me to believe that the team doesn't know, which means that they probably won't fare very well in Week 1, even if the Williamses aren't allowed to play.

New York Jets (+4.5) at Houston

OK, this is a bit of a homer pick on my part. I know Houston plays well at home and the Jets are starting a rookie QB, but Rex Ryan has revamped this defensive unit. Additionally, the Jets are going to run, run, and run some more, and Houston's defensive tackles aren't exactly world beaters.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7.5)

I just can't pick against Peyton Manning at home, especially when Maurice Jones-Drew is nursing a tender ankle right now and Jacksonville's offense revolves around him.

Detroit at New Orleans (-13)

That's a ton of points to give, but Detroit was terrible on defense last year, and didn't do much to address it in the draft, as it used both of its first rounders on offensive players. While New Orleans doesn't have a great defense either, Matthew Stafford, the Lions' newly appointed starter, hasn't blown me away in the pre-season. Couple that with the fact that the Superdome gets loud, and we could have another blowout.

Dallas (-6) at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay is rebuilding, Dallas just got rid of its biggest headache, Terrell Owens. I like the offense to explode in Big D this year, starting with a romping of a 4-12 bound Buccaneers team.

San Francisco (+6.5) at Arizona

This is a matchup that San Francisco should have won on Monday Night Football last year. Mike Singletary, despite being a bit quirky, can motivate his group of players. I don't think Arizona can do what it did last season, and that harsh reality kicks in during Week 1.

Washington at New York Giants (-6.5)

Until the Redskins figure out how to utilize Jason Campbell's strong arm (Santana Moss has become somewhat useless in this offense, but should mesh well with Campbell), I don't trust them to put up big points. Couple that with a stout Giants defense, and the Giants win by 10.

St. Louis (+8.5) at Seattle

Seattle was maybe the unluckiest team in the NFL last year in terms of injuries. While they will probably win this division this year, I like a healthy Steven Jackson (is that an oxymoron?) and an upgraded O-line to help St. Louis keep this one under the spread.

Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay

I just like the Bears this year. I don't know why. I like them to surprise Green Bay on Sunday night in Lambeau.

Buffalo at New England (-10.5)

Let's see...one of these starting offenses managed only three points during the preseason. The other is just one year removed from being the highest scoring offense in NFL history. Oh yeah, the team that can put up the points is at home. This one's easy.

San Diego (-9.5)
at Oakland

San Diego is a popular pick to win the Super Bowl this year. It doesn't matter that Oakland is at home. Al Davis is still the owner, and they're still not very good.

So there you have it...Week 1's matchups all picked. I ended up going with 5 underdogs to cover, and a majority of road teams (nine, versus seven home teams) to cover. I also went with two road underdogs to cover, so we shall see how it all turns out.

Note: This spreads were taken earlier in the week and some have changed since then, so the link provided will have some different spreads than what I used here.