Saturday, March 6, 2010

2010 NFL Mock Draft, Version 2.0

We've seen lots of things change since my last mock over a month ago. Players' stocks have been drastically altered by performances at the NFL Combine, and teams have addressed needs through free agency and trades that I initially had them filling in the draft. With a few tendered players and free agents still available, the scope of the draft could be changed once again, and I'll come out with a third version of this to adapt to that.

So, here we go, Version 2.0 of the Mock:

  1. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Somehow Sam Bradford impressed people at the NFL Combine, despite the fact that he didn’t participate in any game-relevant drills, you know, like throwing. Apparently, people were happy with his weigh-in (he was bulkier than expected), and his interviews went well. He claimed his shoulder was about 80% at the Combine, so if he gets anywhere near 100% he should really shine at his Pro Day. I still think Jimmy Clausen is the right pick here, but Bradford seems to have assumed the lead in the QB race.

Also, an interesting thing to keep in mind, as reported by Don Banks, is what Rams GM Billy Devaney said: “The defensive tackles are difference-makers and we have them graded extremely high. But I have a feeling at the end of the day, the quarterbacks are going to be, if not right there, they’re going to be within striking distance so that you have to think about taking them because (of the value issue).” That seems as though he’s indicating that as long as either QB displays any signs of being a franchise QB, he might get the nod.

Previous Selection: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

  1. Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

The Lions could use a tackle of Okung’s ability to help keep Matthew Stafford clean and healthy, but Ndamukong Suh is such a dominant force that I doubt they can pass him up. Also, it’s not as though defensive tackle isn’t a position of need for the seemingly hopeless Lions (who have actually made some nice off-season moves that will make them better in the long run).

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

The Bucs really don’t want to see the Rams take one of the big defensive tackles, as the Lions would pluck the other one and Tampa Bay would miss out on one of the two most prized prospects. While I doubt it happens, rumors swirled about the Buccaneers expressing interest in moving up to the #1 spot, meaning they are really, really high on either Suh or McCoy. If neither guy is on the board, look for one of two things to happen:

First, they draft a defensive end or Eric Berry in this spot. Both are positions of need, but the money they’d have to shell out probably wouldn’t be worth the production they’d get in return.

Second, they trade the pick to someone looking to leapfrog the Redskins and take Sam Bradford (Seattle, most likely). They could move back and get more picks to help build the team.

However, if the Rams do go with a quarterback, this selection is easy, as Tampa Bay will take whichever DT the Lions pass on.

  1. Washington Redskins: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

I struggled with this pick. I know that new regimes generally tend to bring on new QBs, but it looks like Jason Campbell might still be in Washington next year. I think he’s gotten a raw deal (he’s had so many different offensive coordinators since college that he can’t possibly know a playbook) and can excel if there’s some constants in the offense he’s running. If Mike Shanahan and Co. think they’re going to roll the dice with Campbell, then Russell Okung is a no-brainer pick here, as the offensive line is horrendous.

That being said, I don’t think Campbell is Shanahan’s QB of the future, and he’ll use his first ever pick to take that guy, who is Jimmy Clausen, who I believe is the best QB in this class. He has the moxie to lead his team to a victory, even if his defense is awful, which definitely isn’t the case in Washington. I can see the Redskins being a playoff team again in a year or two.

Previous Selection: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

  1. Kansas City Chiefs: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Okung didn’t do anything to hurt his draft stock at the Combine and is still the premier left tackle in this class. Scott Pioli paid Matt Cassel quite a bit of money, and, as I said last time, Branden Albert isn’t suited to be a LT in the NFL, and could either move to the right side or shift inside to the left guard spot and give the Chiefs a dominant left side of the line for many, many years.

  1. Seattle Seahawks: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

I think Pete Carroll wants to get himself a quarterback in this draft, and he wants to do it early. Unfortunately for Pete, the only two guys worthy of being taken in the first round are already off the board. That means he needs to fill the gaping hole left by Walter Jones on the left side of the line. He has quite a few choices with only Okung being taken so far, but I think Bulaga is the pick. One of the huge knocks against him was the fact that he has short arms, but he measured in with longer arms than expected in the Combine. He has a very low center of gravity and great footwork and should be a great anchor for years to come.

Previous Selection: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

  1. Cleveland Browns: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

Berry is probably the highest rated player on many people’s draft boards, so Cleveland gets a major steal here. He only further cemented himself as the best defensive back at the Combine, but due to teams drafting for positional need and some potential loose cannons (Shanahan and Carroll) drafting in front of Cleveland, I think Berry falls and he goes into a division with two of the most electrifying safeties in the league, Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed.

Previous Selection: Joe Haden, CB, Florida

  1. Oakland Raiders: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

No offense to Raiders fans, but was there any doubt that Bruce Campbell would get scooped up by Al Davis after that Combine showing? His 40-time was better than lots of quarterbacks, he is absolutely shredded at 316, and he had great vertical jump and bench press performances. He certainly fits a position of need for the Raiders, but he certainly comes with injury concerns, as he missed three games during the 2009 season. If he’s healthy and gets the right tutelage, he could evolve into a dependable player for years to come, protecting someone hopefully not named Jamarcus Russell’s blindside.

Previous Selection: Taylor Mays, S, Southern California

  1. Buffalo Bills: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

“With the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select Jake Locker.”

Get ready to hear that statement in thirteen months. This team is in disarray. They have no quarterback, no offensive line, no dependable wide receivers (although Lee Evans has been admirable in staying there), a lousy tight end, and no defensive tackle, yet they’re switching to a 3-4 this year. I guess they could take Dan Williams here since he’d be the best fit in the middle, but I don’t think he’s worthy of a Top 10 selection. Anthony Davis was disappointing at the Combine, but he is still a raw talent with great upside. Since the health of whoever plays QB in 2010 for Buffalo isn’t of the utmost concern to their future plans, they ought to take their franchise LT now and let him grow before he really needs to protect someone.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

I read this in an Adam Schefter article, but he said Chris Mortensen told him that at least one NFL team is willing to take Time Tebow in the first round. It would make plenty of sense for that team to be Jacksonville, since he could sell a ton of tickets down there immediately due to his cult hero status in the state of Florida. However, I think he’s still two or three years away from being a successful NFL quarterback. He has all of the intangibles to be the star QB at the next level and I think he will be willing to put in as much work as he needs to excel in the NFL, but since I don’t think that time is in the foreseeable future, the Jaguars need a player who will help them win now, which is the other way of increasing ticket sales. They had a paltry fourteen sacks in 2009, and Morgan is the best pass rusher in this class, and would find comfort in playing his natural 4-3 defensive end spot.

Previous Selection: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

  1. Denver Broncos: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

That first-round tender on Brandon Marshall is screaming for him to be moved. For some teams that could use a pass catcher, trading away a first-rounder you might have spent on an unproven pass catcher on a truly elite receiver seems like a no-brainer, even with Marshall’s rather puerile character off the field. If that happens and Denver picks up a second first-rounder, they can afford to use this pick on the best wide receiver in the draft to pick up the slack that Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney won’t.

  1. Miami Dolphins: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

I truly think that Miami will deal this pick to Pittsburgh, who will want to move up and get Rolando McClain. However, since predicting trades in a mock is useless because it throws the entire thing off, I’ll give Miami a DT who plugs a gap in their 3-4. Another option would be Sergio Kindle or whatever rush linebacker Miami has highest on its board, since Jason Taylor is rapidly declining and Joey Porter is gone.

Previous Selection: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

  1. San Francisco 49ers: Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Haden’s draft stock took a huge hit when he ran a 4.57 and a 4.59 in his forty-yard dash. Teams will probably think that he lacks the elite foot speed to keep up with faster wide receivers in the NFL and will pass on him. Still, the 49ers luck out by nabbing the top cornerback in the draft, which also meets a huge area of need. He should come in and start from day one and help out San Francisco for years and years.

Previous Selection: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

  1. Seattle Seahawks: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

The Seahawks ideal scenario would be getting a franchise QB and a franchise left tackle with their two first-rounders. However, with both quarterbacks off the board by the first pick, I already have them addressing the left tackle need, even if it is a bit of a reach. However, with Oakland, Buffalo, and San Francisco picking behind them, they can’t guarantee that they get a rock solid guy at the position, since all of those teams need tackles as well.

This pick then becomes sort of a luxury. There certainly are questions at running back, as Julius Jones is pretty terrible, and Justin Forsett is still unproven, despite some promising performances last season. I think Carroll wants to get himself a real playmaker, and Spiller is exactly that. He can line up at wide receiver or running back, and can definitely provide a boost in the return game.

Previous Selection: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

  1. New York Giants: Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama

The Giants strike gold here at #15. After Antonio Pierce was let go and Karlos Dansby didn’t even meet with them before signing with Miami, the inside linebacker position needs to be addressed, and Rolando McClain falls to them in this mock. He is far and away the best prospect at the position, and will start from day one.

Previous Selection: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

  1. Tennessee Titans: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

The Titans needed a pass rusher before Kyle VandenBosch departed for Detroit. Now, that need is imminent. Many consider Pierre-Paul a huge risk, as he only played one year of major college football, and didn’t even post the greatest numbers. However, his upside is supposed to be amongst the highest in the draft, and I think Jeff Fisher can keep his head on straight and turn him into a feared pass rusher at the next level.

Previous Selection: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

  1. San Francisco 49ers: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

If this scenario plays out for San Francisco, they’ll be extremely happy. They already got the best cover corner in the draft to fill on of their major needs, now they get a guy capable of playing either tackle positions who can start on the right side immediately. Trent Williams wowed everyone at the Combine with his athleticism and crazy quick 40 time (4.88 seconds) and should help as a mauler in opening up holes for Frank Gore.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers: Earl Thomas, S, Texas

As I said before, I think Pittsburgh moves up to that #12 spot and takes Rolando McClain. However, since I don’t know whether or not that happens, I’m giving them Earl Thomas here. Two major questions they had going into this off-season were the futures of Casey Hampton and Ryan Clark. Hampton has been re-signed, while it looks like Clark will be gone. That being said, they need a playmaker at safety to play opposite of Troy Polamalu. Thomas’ biggest knock is his size, and playing alongside Polamalu means he won’t have to be as big of a force in stopping the run and making big hits. He is phenomenal in coverage and can play a Cover 1 if needed.

Previous Selection: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

  1. Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan

Their biggest off-season need was a cornerback, and they just signed Dunta Robinson to a long-term deal, so I doubt they’ll go that route with this pick. Another option is to take a defensive end who can wreak havoc immediately, learn from John Abraham, and then eventually replace him when he retires. Brandon Graham has a relentless motor and was really the one bright spot on a dismal Michigan Wolverines team.

Previous Selection: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State

  1. Houston Texans: Jahvid Best, RB, California

I really struggled with this pick. I think the Texans need to upgrade the defensive secondary, especially after losing Robinson to the Falcons yesterday. That leaves the option of a cornerback like Kyle Wilson or Devin McCourty, or maybe Taylor Mays. However, the Texans have gone defense five of the last six first rounds, and even though Steve Slaton exploded onto the scene in 2008, he took a monumental step backward in 2009, and none of Ryan Moats, Arian Foster, or Chris Brown is the answer either. I think Houston could use a solid back to complement the dominant passing game they have, and, with Spiller off the board, Best is the easy choice. He dazzled with his speed at the Combine, and, if he can stay healthy, should provide an immediate upgrade for an already efficient offense.

Previous Selection: Earl Thomas, S, Texas

  1. Cincinnati Bengals: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

Perhaps Chad Johnson will get his way and Terrell Owens will become a Bengal. Until that happens, Cincinnati still needs a second pass catching threat after the unfortunate passing of Chris Henry. Gresham didn’t play in 2009, but was impressive at the Combine with his strength and speed, plus he catches anything that comes his way. He’s a matchup nightmare and will make this offense better from the day he dons the black and orange.

  1. New England Patriots: Sean Weatherspoon, DE/OLB, Missouri

I think Weatherspoon would move inside in the Pats 3-4 scheme. When Jerrod Mayo got hurt, the weakness that was the Patriots’ linebacking group was exposed. Weatherspoon is a phenomenal tackler and will provide some stress relief to Patriots fans wondering what the defense is going to do in 2010 with a disgruntled Vince Wilfork.

Previous Selection: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

  1. Green Bay Packers: Charles Brown, OT, Southern California

They just re-signed Chad Clifton, but he’s not the long-term answer for protecting All-World quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Charles Brown could solidify the line and become Rodgers’ best friend for many, many years.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

Andy Reid took Michael Vick in, so why not the troubled Carlos Dunlap? Most agree that he’s a Top 5 talent, but his off the field issues are troublesome, and he apparently didn’t do much as far as answering questions about his character at the Combine. All of that means that his stock will take a hit. Nonetheless, Dunlap fits a need for the Eagles, who don’t have anyone of note coming off the edge opposite of Trent Cole. If he behaves himself, this is an absolute steal.

Previous Selection: Everson Griffen, DE, Southern California

  1. Baltimore Ravens: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

My first mock had the Ravens taking a wide receiver here, but, since then, they’ve signed Donté Stallworth (I don’t even know if he’ll make the team) and a stud in Anquan Boldin, which surely made Joe Flacco smile. However, the glory days of the once vaunted Ravens defense are quickly fading, and the secondary needs major upgrades, especially if Ed Reed decides to retire. Kyle Wilson is the second best prospect in this class, and should be a great fit in Baltimore.

Previous Selection: Golden Tate

  1. Arizona Cardinals: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas

This team is in big, big trouble in 2010. They lost their quarterback who made the offense click. They lost their free safety to the Giants, and their best linebacker to the Dolphins. Ordinarily that’s bad, but when two of your best defensive players leave from a team who surrendered ninety points in its final two games, it means that your already bad situation is much, much worse. Sergio Kindle can provide a pass rush for a team that only got seven sacks from linebackers all of last season.

  1. Dallas Cowboys: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

I don’t think much has changed since last time I mocked. Iupati is still a huge mauler that can open up holes for the Cowboys three-headed running attack. He’ll start immediately and shore up an offensive line that was abused by the Vikings.

  1. San Diego Chargers: Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State

With LaDainian Tomlinson now officially gone and Darren Sproles maybe gone, the Chargers need a running back. Even if Sproles does return, he clearly isn’t capable of handling a full workload, so they need a first and second down, grind it out type of guy. Enter Ryan Mathews. I originally had Jonathan Dwyer here, but he was a disappointment at the Combine, as he was much slower than expected. Mathews showed good burst and was a great college player.

Previous Selection: Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech

  1. New York Jets: Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson

The three biggest needs for this team entering free agency were: cornerback, rush linebacker, wide receiver. After trading for Antonio Cromartie, they can put a check mark next to one of those things. While some would argue that the defense is already strong and it’s the offense that needs the work, I don’t like any of the available wide receivers here. Ricky Sapp was hampered by an injury last season, but, if healthy, is probably the best rush linebacker in this class. The Jets got burned once by a guy in that position (Vernon Gholston), but drafting at #29 means a far lower investment in Sapp.

Previous Selection: Brandon Graham, DE/OLB, Michigan

  1. Minnesota Vikings: Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers

With an aging and injured secondary, the Vikings can get a great, fluid player in Devin McCourty at the tail end of the first round. They may have some problems on offense, as Chester Taylor is now gone, and Brett Favre is in off-season, pensive mode, but the defense wasn’t good enough to win the NFC Championship game. Another option would be an inside linebacker like Brandon Spikes, since medical people I’ve spoken to doubt that E.J. Henderson can ever come back from that horrific injury.

Previous Selection: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

  1. Indianapolis Colts: Maurkice Pouncey, C/OG, Florida

The Colts line is getting older, and Pouncey has the ability to play multiple spots on the interior. He could ultimately take over for Jeff Saturday, but being able to learn under him and Peyton Manning for a few seasons is a huge boost to the Colts’ future.

Previous Selection: Brian Price, DT, UCLA

  1. New Orleans Saints: Taylor Mays, S, Southern California

First off, this city could go another thirty some odd years without a Super Bowl appearance and still be happy. My girlfriend’s brother goes to Tulane, and we called him during the overturned two-point conversion and couldn’t hear anything except “WHO DAT?!?!” being screamed in the background.

Nonetheless, they still get a draft pick. Taylor Mays was impressive at the Combine, and I could easily see him going higher than this (Philadelphia, perhaps), but I think he’d benefit from learning the defense for a year and studying under Darren Sharper, who will most likely be back in the Big Easy for another season. If he learns how to read routes and gets over being a liability in coverage, we may have a future Pro Bowler here.

Previous Selection: Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri

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